Predicting benchmarked US state employment data in real time

نویسندگان

چکیده

US payroll employment data come from a survey and are subject to revisions. While revisions generally small at the national level, they can be large enough state level alter assessments of current economic conditions. Users must therefore exercise caution in interpreting until “benchmarked” against administrative 5–16 months after reference period. This article develops state-space model that predicts benchmarked real time. The has two distinct features: (1) an explicit revision process (2) dynamic factor incorporates real-time information other state-level labor market indicators. We find reduces average size benchmark by about 11 percent. When we optimally model’s predictions with those existing models, 14

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: International Journal of Forecasting

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['1872-8200', '0169-2070']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.02.006